PREDICTION OF SOUTHERN OSCILLATION USING THE INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW VARIABILITY
AbstractAtmospheric boundary layer derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the period of 1974 to 2002 has been used as boundary forcings for the global ocean model Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM). The ocean model is a curvilinear grid model, whose poles are located over mainland China and over the Australian continent, thus focusing on the maritime continent. The model simulates major Indonesian throughflow passages that focus on six cannels representing three inlets and three outlets (the Makassar, Lifamatola, Halmahera, Lombok, Ombai and Timor Straits). The model results have been validated using the Arlindo observation Project over the Makassar Strait in the period of January 1997 to February 1998, which fortunately was during a strong El Niño episode. The model simulation results were then investigated for their prediction capabilities of any of those channels in foreseeing the incoming southern oscillation events. Temporal correlation analysis with lag and advance time correlation methods were performed against simulated data at all levels on those channels. Variabilities in depth of 74 to 200m (thermocline depth) show the strongest correlation with SOI index (Darwin minus Tahiti mean sea level pressure). The temperature and salinity correlations with SOI are the highest with one-month in advance over Lifamatola Strait (0.77) and two-month in advance over the Makassar Straits (0.74). These significant correlations highlight the important of those two straits in prediction of incoming southern oscillation that usually leads to ENSO episode which brings most of the time devastating impact to economy, agriculture and ecosystem.
Aldrian, E., D. Sein, D. Jacob, L. Diimenil-Gates, R. Podzun, 2005. Modelling Indonesian Rainfall with a Coupled Regional Model. Climate Dynamics, 25: 1-17
Arakawa, A. and V. R. Lamb, 1977. Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model. Methods Comput. Phys., 17: 173-265.
Bryden, H. L. and S. Imawaki, 2001. Ocean heat transport. Ocean Circulation & Climate: Observing and Modelling the Global Ocean, G. Siedler, J. Church and J. Gould, Eds., Academic Press, 455-474.
Ffield, A., K. Vranes, A. L. Gordon, and R. D. Susanto, 2000. Temperature variability within Makasar Strait. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27: 237-240.
Godfrey, J. S., 1996. The effect of the Indonesian throughflow on circulation and heat exchange with the atmosphere: A review. J. Geophys. Res., 101: 12217-12337.
Gordon A. L., R. D. Susanto, and A. Ffield. 1999. Throughflow within Makassar Strait. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 3325-3328.
Gordon, A. L., and R. A. Fine, 1996. Pathways of water between the Pacific and Indian Oceans in the Indonesian seas. Nature, 379: 146-149.
Hautala, S., J. Sprintall, J. T. Potemra, J. Chong, W. Pandoe, N. Bray, and G. Ilahude, 2001. Velocity structure and transport of Indonesian Throughflow in the major straits restricting flow into the Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 106: 19, 527-19,546.
Ilahude, A. G., and Gordon, A. L., 1996. Thermocline stratification within the Indonesian seas, J. Geophys. Res., 101(C5):12401-12409.
Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-years reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77: 473-471.
Kamenkovich, V. M., W. H. Burnett, A. L. Gordon, and G. L. Mellor, 2003. The Pacific/Indian Ocean pressure difference and its influence on the Indonesian Sea circulation: Part II- The study with specified seasurface heights. J. Marine. Res., 61: 613-634.
Levitus, S., T. P. Boyer, M. E. Conkright, T. O'Brien, J. Antonov, C. Stephens, L. Stathoplos, D. Johnson, and R. Gelfeld, 1998. Introduction. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 18, Ocean Climate Laboratory, National Oceanographic Data Center, vol 1, chap. World Ocean database 1998, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
Marsland, S. J., H. Haak, J. H. Jungclaus, M. Latif, and F. Roske, 2003, The Max-Planck Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling, 5: 91-127.
Meyers, G, 1996. Variation of Indonesian throughflow and El-Niño Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 101: 12255-12264.
Molcard, R., M. Fieux, and F. Syamsudin, 2001. The throughflow within Ombai Strait. Deep-Sea Res., 101: 1237-1253.
Morey, S. L., J. F. Shriver, and J. J. O'Brien, 1999. The effects of Halmahera on the Indonesian throughflow. J. Geophys. Res., 104: 23281- 23296.
Murray, S. P. and D. Arief, 1988. Throughflow into the Indian Ocean through the Lombok Strait, January 1985 - January 1986. Nature, 333: 4/14 447.
Potemra, J., R. Lukas, and G.Mitchum, 1997. Large-scale estimation of transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 102: 27,795-27, 812.
Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 2001. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401: 360-363.
Susanto, R. D. and A. L. Gordon, 2004. Velocity and transport of the Makassar Strait troughflow. J. Geophys. Res., 26: 3325-3328.
Wolff, J. 0., E. Maier-Reimer, and S. Legutke, 1997. The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model HOPE. Technical Report 13, German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ), Hamburg, Germany.
Copyright (c) 2009 Marine Research in Indonesia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.